Pakistan: Rudderless Drift in the Geopolitical and Economic Quagmire — By Lt Gen CA Krishnan

By Lt Gen CA Krishnan

“On the eve of 75 years of its birth, Pakistan finds itself in a quagmire, ideologically, politically, economically, in its global outlook and sadly, even culturally. In its search for an ideology and a government structure, it has moved from Jinnah’s professed dream of a secular nation to an Islamic republic, to an Islamic theocracy and into a hub of radical, fundamentalist religious extremism.” Pakistan was carved out of the Indian sub continent solely on the basis of religion. But when the ‘exclusive homeland’ was created, 40% of the 95 million Indian Muslims chose to remain in India. Jinnah, in his famous constituent Assembly speech on 11 August 1947 had said “You are free to go to your temples, to your mosques or any other place of worship in this state of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed — that has nothing to do with the business of the state”[1]. This lofty idea was buried along with Jinnah in 1948 itself. Religious identity also proved inadequate to keep Islamic Republic of Pakistan together when East Pakistan, comprising 55% of Pakistan’s population and about 19% of its area, seceded in 1971 to form Bangladesh. It took 10 years and lot of political turmoil for Pakistan to get its first constitution in 1956. Within two years, the country witnessed its first coup and General Ayub appointed himself the President in 1958. The 1956 constitution was replaced by a new one in 1962 which was further replaced by yet another constitution in 1973. General Zia and Musharaf, in their turn as dictators, violated and amended the constitution at will. Imran Ali Noonari & Majid Noonari, in an article titled ‘Impact of Dictators on the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan’[2], explains how military dictators completely changed the nature of Pakistan’s constitution and converted the country’s Parliamentary democracy into a Presidential form of government. The authors further go on to explain how Zia ul Haq, through Islamic laws and ‘Hudood Ordinance’, brought about Islamization of Pakistani society and transformed the liberal state into a theocracy. Despite having a constitutionally elected government, even today, it is the army that controls government policies in Pakistan. Pak Army decides the country’s foreign policy and controls its domestic politics. All major national infra projects are executed under the army. In September 2020, former Prime minister, Nawab Sharif, publicly lamented “For most of Pakistan’s history, there has been either a military dictator at the helm of affairs or, when there was an elected government, a parallel government was being run by the military” and emphatically added “We want elected leaders to run the affairs of the country, to manage the economy and to decide on the foreign policy”[3]. Ayesha Siddiqa, recalls Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi banging his fist on the table and announcing in August 2018 “Henceforth, the country’s foreign policy will be made at the Foreign office”[4], only to see this policy overturned by the army in no time. Over the years, Pak army has evolved a fine system to rule the country through a “Hybrid Martial law’ which cleverly deflects blame for inept governance, rampant corruption etc on to the civilian ‘elected’ government, while insulating the army from any allegations of interference. A formal coup has been rendered unnecessary in Pakistan. It is also well known that Pak army runs a multibillion dollar private sector business empire with footprints in real estate, shopping malls, educational institutions, stud farms, cement and other big industries and even foot wear, Petrol pumps etc. Global powers jostling for stakes in the region find it convenient to deal with the actual power centre in Pakistan, the Pak army, rather than grapple with the country’s powerless, chaotic polity. Sharing borders with India, China, Afghanistan & Iran and being at the junction of China, Central Asia, South Asia and west Asia, Pakistan enjoys a unique geopolitical location. However, through flawed policies and misuse, Pakistan let global powers exploit its geographical assets in pursuit of their regional and global aspirations. In the bargain, Pakistan’s geographical advantage has been turned into a dangerous liability. On its part, Pakistan has not been able to create any assets or value for itself beyond the unique geographical advantage that it inherited at birth and is today, a politically and economically weak, vulnerable and fractured country with nothing to offer except its geopolitical location, fundamentalist ideology, extremism, hard core terrorism and the ‘rogue value’ of its nuclear capability.

Afghanistan poses complex challenges to Pakistan. Inadvertently or otherwise, Pakistan has got itself deeply and inextricably involved in the Afghan turmoil. The September 2021 US pullout plan creates further uncertainties. The ongoing peace initiative may remain a mere display of good intentions and diplomatic optics. As far as Pak-Afghan relations are concerned, even beyond Afghan’s internal turmoil, it is difficult to visualize a trouble-free relationship. Amrullah Saleh, the Afghan Vice president gave unambiguous indication of this in his 7 September 2020 tweet on Durand line. He tweeted “No Afghan politician of national stature can overlook the issue of Durand Line. It will condemn him or her in life & after life. It is an issue which needs discussion & resolution. Expecting us to gift it for free is unrealistic. Peshawar used to be the winter capital of Afghanistan”[5]. Turmoil and instability in Afghanistan always resonates across the Durand line and is bad news for Pakistan. A great deal depends upon whether China will step into the void created by the US pull out and if so, to what extent and in what manner. Afghanistan has the potential to be China’s big dilemma. Steering clear of military involvement in Afghanistan may worsen the turmoil in the region with adverse impact on CPEC. On the other hand, any Chinese military involvement runs the risk of meeting the earlier USSR and US fate. With little other option than to stay militarily uncommitted while remaining the major player, China could seek a UN deployment. Pakistan may, however, prefer a Dragon entry into Afghanistan which will create a Chinese dependency on it while keeping India away. During the cold war tussle, Pakistan was a member of SEATO, an alliance against communist states, and CENTO, a security grouping to counter the Soviet expansion threat. Pakistan’s role in these alliances was too insignificant to cause any irritant in the China-Pak relations. Soon after the 1962 India — China war, China secured Shaksgam valley in Ladakh from Pakistan in the garb of border settlement. It is believed that an informal alliance was made between the countries when Pakistan gifted Shaksgam to China. In fact, Mr. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the External Affairs minister had stated in the Pakistan national Assembly in July 1963 that “An attack by India on Pakistan involves the territorial integrity and security of the largest state in Asia” [6]. This sentiment was further strengthened by Chinese overtures. Notwithstanding its implied assurances to Pakistan, China steered clear of the India Pak wars of 1965, 1971 and even the Kargil conflict. India has, however, always been a cementing force for Pak-China relations. Pakistan shares a 900 Kms border with Iran, but the bilateral trade is a modest $ 359 million. Despite historical links, relations between the two countries are beset with irritants. Bilateral distrust peaked during Mushraff’s time. Both accuse each other of cross border terrorist intrusions and in fact, Pakistan is in the process of constructing a fence along its border with Iran! The Baluchi minority, split between borders of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan is another constant source of worry. Apart from the deep shia-sunni divide, Iran also is very wary of Pakistan’s relations with its sworn enemies, US and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s Chabahar port is located just about 200 Kms West of Pakistan’s Gwadar port. Chabahar’s potential to be a viable alternative to Gwadar makes Pakistan apprehensive. A Researchgate report of 2016 comparing the two ports had concluded “Comparing the matrix of six groups of criteria and based on calculated relative weights, it was revealed that Chabahar port is obviously a better choice for transiting cargo from the logistics point of view than the Gwadar port”[7]. Viewed in this context, Iranian Foreign Minister, Javed Zarif’s recent statement that ‘Chabahar port is not against Pakistan’s Gwadar port’[8], only adds to the Pak apprehension. Pakistan is also left wondering whether China is hedging CPEC, its Economic corridor through Pakistan, with the $ 400 billion investment deal that it signed with Iran in March 2021. The deal covers investments in ports, banking, telecommunications, railways and information technology, over a 25 year period. With its nuclear power status and Military capability, Pakistan aspires for an Islamic leadership role and a place of pride in the Middle East. But in reality, instead of being looked at as a leader, its image has become synonymous with a perpetual economic aid seeker. Within its own geopolitical region, Pakistan has remained a tool in the hands of one or the other big powers in their power rivalry and is unlikely to be in a position to chart an independent course for itself. As events unfolded after India’s abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan failed to elicit even lukewarm support from the Middle East Islamic community against India’s action, exposing its marginal influence in the region. Pakistan government has lately been making efforts to integrate Turkish culture into its society[9], ostensibly seeking a ‘pure’ Islamic cultural identity by moving away from its actual South Asian-Indian Cultural moorings. On Turkey’s part also, a distinct favorable leaning towards Pakistan is discernible. Pakistan faces a huge dilemma when it comes to balancing its relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran & Turkey. In the recent years, its relationship with Saudi Arabia has witnessed setbacks. In 2015, a Saudi request for military contribution in Yemen was declined by Pakistan. Saudi Arabia has also not taken kindly to the recent unsuccessful attempt by Turkey, Malaysia & Pakistan to foster an alternative Islamic grouping. The historic Abraham accord of September 2020 between UAE, Bahrain and Israel has caused further dilemma for Pakistan. India Pak relations have always been most vexed. Perpetual enmity and mutual suspicion was a partition gift, further worsened by the four wars and creation of Bangladesh. Pakistan is obsessed with seeking revenge; J&K is the stage and terrorism, the tool for it. In fact, anti India obsession is the most extensively used sentiment to unify the country. While India considers state sponsored terrorism by Pakistan as the stumbling block in their relations, Pakistan claims J&K to be the problem. Pakistan’s inability to respond to the surgical strike, Balakot air strike, abrogation of Article 370, FATF grey listing etc have dented the country’s status considerably . Pakistan’s India challenge becomes even more complex as the US and the Western world considers India an important partner in countering China. There is no dialogue between India and Pakistan at present and India has adopted a clear stance that there is nothing to talk about J&K except Pak aided terrorism. India’s messaging in the Pak context has now enlarged to include even POK and Baluchistan. Although putting an end to state sponsored terrorism and accepting the Line of Control as the international border may offer a possible solution, Pakistan’s political institutions lack the strength to take such bold steps. Pak army, which calls the political shots in Pakistan, fears that a peaceful settlement with India would dilute its hold on the country and take away its unquestioned political powers. In the India-Pak scenario, China perceives more to gain from strained India-Pak relations than from a cordial relationship between the two. Chinese outlook could change once it is fully entrenched in Pakistan. Pakistan has lately started throwing hints to reach out and is looking for someone to facilitate getting India back on the table. China’s role in this change of heart cannot be ruled out. “The relationship between America and Pakistan is based on mutual incomprehension and always has been. To American eyes-Pakistan has gone from being a quirky irrelevance, to a stabilizing friend, to an essential military ally, to a seedbed of terror. To Pakistani eyes-America has been a guarantee of security, a coldly distant scold, an enthusiastic military enabler, and is now a threat to national security and a source of humiliation. The countries are not merely at odds. Each believes it can play the other-with sometimes absurd, sometimes tragic results” To the US and the western world, for decades, Pakistan was a frontline state in their contest against communist Russia and China, especially in the backdrop of early Indian leaning towards USSR. Despite the huge US economic and military assistance that it has received, Pakistan considers US an unreliable and wavering partner as the levels of US assistance always waxed and waned depending upon geopolitical situation and changing US needs. On their part, America shared similar sentiments about Pakistan too, as is evident from Admiral Mullen voicing concern about Pakistan army’s unwillingness to be honest in its dealings with America and his congressional testimony describing Afghan Haqqani terrorist network as “a veritable arm of Pakistan’s ISI”. He went on to add “The support of terrorism is part of their national strategy”[10]. On the cover of Hussain Haqqani’s book cited above, the publisher very aptly sums up “The relationship between America and Pakistan is based on mutual incomprehension and always has been. To American eyes-Pakistan has gone from being a quirky irrelevance, to a stabilizing friend, to an essential military ally, to a seedbed of terror. To Pakistani eyes-America has been a guarantee of security, a coldly distant scold, an enthusiastic military enabler, and is now a threat to national security and a source of humiliation. The countries are not merely at odds. Each believes it can play the other-with sometimes absurd, sometimes tragic results”. Viewed in this context, one is tempted to ask — will the new Biden administration view Pakistan any differently? Obama wasn’t favorably inclined to Pakistan. With the presence of a large number of Obama’s team members in the Biden administration, any major shift in its Pak policy looks unlikely. The September 2021 deadline for departure of last US contingent from Afghanistan only adds to Pakistan’s woes. Pakistan seems to have realized that it had never succeeded in scaling its US relations beyond the ambit of security. With this hindsight, when China came along with mouth watering, sugar coated economic offers, Pakistan saw in it an opportunity for fostering a relationship where economy took the centre stage instead of a purely security centric relationship.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with an expected outlay of over $60 billion has opened a new chapter in the relationship between the countries. CPEC is probably the most important link in the Chinese Belt and Road initiative and is a clear expression of its global ambitions. It is an integrated network of communication and energy infrastructure and SEZs connecting Kashgar in southern Xinjiang with Gwadar in the Gulf of Oman. For China, it has immense geo strategic significance, providing an attractive alternative to the Malacca straits and bringing it at the door steps of Afghanistan and Iran while simultaneously opening a gateway to the Middle East & CAR. It will help in reducing the US and Indian footprint in the region and also help in disconnecting the Uigurs Muslims link to the Northern areas of Pakistan. Exploiting the full potential of CPEC would, however, be dependent upon stability in Afghanistan and regions of Gilgit Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. Some of these areas in Pakistan hold the potential to be ‘mini Afghanistan’. Pakistan views CPEC as a fountain of economic benefits and employment opportunities combined with an implied security guarantee against any Indian threat. The actual outcome from CPEC so far has, however, fallen short of expectations. Capital investments in poor countries typically combine the host country’s cheap labour with the capital brought in by the Investing country. However, in CPEC, like in most other Chinese investments, China brings its own labour force along with the capital. This has left only menial jobs for the Pakistanis. Allegations of denial of jobs for locals, indifference to their customs and traditions, resource exploitation etc are already causing problems in Baluchistan and Gilgit Baltistan. Arif Rafiq, a foreign policy scholar and a fellow at Middle East institute in Washington, writes that “Six years after its launch, CPEC is nowhere close to a functional economic corridor. It may never become one. Today, Gwadar port sits idle and the overland Sino-Pak trade remains very modest”[11] and adds that even the estimate of $ 6 to 8 billion in tolls alone, will remain fantasy. The insightful article also observes that “Infrastructure and transit trade could never be the be-all and end-all of Pakistan’s economic pivot. Pakistan will not prosper solely by transporting the goods of other countries. That economic model may have worked at one point for city-states like Dubai and Singapore, but it won’t for a country of more than 220 million people that sees a million young people enter its labour force annually”. Experts like Arif also point out that exports are the missing piece of Pakistan’s economic puzzle. They highlight Pakistan’s bankrupt Electricity sector as an example of the structural flaws that afflict the country’s economy. Pakistan generates excess electricity. But its inefficient grid combined with extensive power theft makes power supply at sustainable rates impossible and results in running up huge losses. Cotton is quoted as another sector with great potential, but in distress due to lack of economic reforms. Notwithstanding the Chinese entry with big ticket projects, economists believe that disrupting Pakistan’s political economy controlled by the civil and military elite is the only solution for Pakistan’s economic revival. But given their stakes in maintaining status quo and the clout they wield, Arif Rafiq fears that the much needed pivot for an economic revival will remain a non starter. The picture gets grimmer with the growing repayment liability of the country’s huge Chinese loans with no escape from loan default in sight. What will happen when the long chain of loan default sets in? Will China assume ownership of the real estate through which the CPEC runs or will it settle for a 99 year lease? Will CPEC get converted into CEC? Will it be a trailer of the 21stcentury Economic Colonization model? Will China force Pakistan’s hands for greater stability in the region to further China’s own economic and geostrategic cause? Will it result in greater internal turmoil in Pakistan? Whichever way, the events to follow will have huge implications for the region. Economically, Pakistan is embarrassingly distressed and finds itself inextricably caught in debt trap. Incidents such as the recent seizing of PIA aircraft by Malaysian authorities in Kuala Lumpur for not paying lease fees, distress borrowing of $ 1 billion from China to pay back a Saudi loan etc are set to occur more frequently in the days ahead. Pakistan’s domestic political situation is also crumbling. Fundamentalism and extremism have become the most cherished national values of Pakistan. This has caused unprecedented Political turmoil with the new comer extremist religious political entity, ‘Tehreeke Labbaik Pakistan’ (TLP), holding the government and country to ransom. Even the Pak army is down to its knees as TLP enjoys considerable support base amongst its rank and file.

Amidst this complex geopolitical milieu, China is forcing a hapless Pakistan to make a strategic choice regarding Pak-China relations. Closer India-US relations, especially military and strategic relations has pushed Pak into a corner and drawn it deeper into the Chinese trap. The vice-like Chinese grip becomes exposed when Pakistan says “in issues like China’s Uighur genocide, Pakistan believes in dealing with the concerned country in ‘private’”, which is in stark contrast to Pakistan jumping in as the self proclaimed, fundamentalist, vociferous, global guardian of Islam in issues like the French Charlie Hebdo cartoon case. As the Chinese grip tightens further, Pakistan desperately announces that its relations with China, US and Europe are not a zero sum game. “With US and the West having plateaued out economically, there is adequate elbow room for India and China to proceed without blocking each other’s path. However, China’s reconciliation with this fact is subject to India’s capability to defend its interests. The bottom line for India, therefore, is to strengthen the country’s defence capabilities while pursuing cordial and diplomatic relations and hastening India’s economic development.” Pakistan has reached a corner where all its major foreign policy and other decisions will now be vetted by the Chinese Communist Party rather than by the Pak army. Pakistan really has no independent choice to make and may be considered as an appendage of China. Therefore, India’s prime focus, even in the India Pak context, must be China. In dealing with China, post Galwan events have given us the confidence and shown us the way. Mr. Shivshankar Menon, the former NSA rightly observed that the overall military and technology superiority that China enjoys was not found reflected on our borders[12]. However, we need to strengthen our capabilities along the borders with China and tighten our internal security. India must also seek and actively subscribe to Military and strategic cooperation and groupings which we feel are necessary to guard our national interests. Internally, at least on critical national security issues, the country must stand together, cutting across political lines. On the trade front, the super power aspirant China needs India, as much as the rising power India needs China. While Pakistan is critical to China for its trade in terms of ‘goods transit’, India is even more important for trade itself. With US and the West having plateaued out economically, there is adequate elbow room for India and China to proceed without blocking each other’s path. However, China’s reconciliation with this fact is subject to India’s capability to defend its interests. The bottom line for India, therefore, is to strengthen the country’s defence capabilities while pursuing cordial and diplomatic relations and hastening India’s economic development. On the eve of 75 years of its birth, Pakistan finds itself in a quagmire, ideologically, politically, economically, in its global outlook and sadly, even culturally. In its search for an ideology and a government structure, it has moved from Jinnah’s professed dream of a secular nation to an Islamic republic, to an Islamic theocracy and into a hub of radical, fundamentalist religious extremism. Politically, it has moved from democracy to military dictatorship to an army controlled democracy and is now in a state of anarchy. Culturally, there are indications that Pakistan Government is uncomfortable with its South Asian-Indian cultural moorings and has lately developed a craving for cultural identification with Turkey. Its yearning for leadership and a place of pride amongst the Islamic nations is dismissed by Islamic brethren with disdain despite its ‘lone Islamic nuclear power’ claim. In its global outlook, Pakistan has shifted from being ‘west leaning’ to an important US ally to a Chinese ‘junior partner’. Its economy is in distress with serious structural issues and unbearable debt burden. Crumbling on every front, Pakistan has now embraced China. Chinese alliance, unlike Pakistan’s previous alliances, comes with its own set of unique conditions; there may be no option for a divorce. With divorce option out of the way, where will the ‘China Marriage’ take Pakistan? Only time will tell. The author is a former deputy chief of army staff. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author’s and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of IIRF.

[1] Shahzeb Jillani, BBC News, “The Search for Jinnah’s Vision of Pakistan”, 11 September 2013, bbc.com/news/world-asia-24034873

[2] Researchgate, December 2013, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337049938

[3] “Pak army a state above the state, says Nawaz Sharif as opposition unites against military leaders”, Hindustan Times, September 20,2020, hindustantimes.com/world-news/pak-oppn-parties-unite-to-decry-military-s-state-above-state/story-6a0jTfeYC6cSpnhQ8lhFLN.html

[4] “Pakistani General as Riyadh envoy brings Middle Policy under army. Eyes on Israel”, The Print, January 25, 2021, theprint.in/opinion/Pakistani-general-as-riyadh-envoy-brings-middle-east-policy-under-army-eyes-on-israel/590624/

[5] twitter.com/amrullahsaleh2/status/1302684721567105031?lang=en

[6] Rajesh Rajagopalan, Strategic Analysis, January 1999, “Neorealist Theory and the India-Pakistan Conflict-II, ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/sa/sa_99rar01.html

[7] Jafar Sayareh, Researchgate, “Chabahar Port Vs Gwadar Port: A Logistics Performance Comparison, August 2016, researchgate.net/publication/307639539_Chabahar_Port_Vs_Gwadar_port_A_Logistics_Performance_Comparison

[8] “Chabahar is not against China or Pakistan’s port Gwadar, says Iran FM Zarif”, DNA, April 16, 2021.

[9] Umair Javed, “Pakistan is Embracing Turkish Cultural products unquestioningly. Here’s why”, The Print, April 7, 2021, theprint.in/opinion/Pakistan-is-embracing-turkish-cultural-products-unquestioningly-heres-why/634737/

[10] Hussain Haqqani, Magnificent Delusions, New York, PublicAffairs, 2013, p348.

[11] Arif Rafiq, “Pakistan’s Geoeconomic Delusions”, Foreign Policy, April 5, 2021, foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/05/pakistans-geoeconomics-delusions/

[12] Shivshankar Menon, “China’s rising support for Pakistan, and their collusion, may affect our interests”, Times of India, April 25, 2021

Originally published at https://indusresearch.in.